ISO Report on Forecasting Trends: Towards the Sharing Economy

It can no longer be assumed that trade will grow ever more globalised. Instead, the next few years will likely be marked by fragmentation . This will be driven by a variety of factors including changing consumer preferences, geopolitical tensions, climate action and the rise of new digital business models.

Such fragmentation obviously poses a risk to effective collaboration; not only between countries, but also between companies and between public and private. As we move through this brave new world, it is critical that we maintain common definitions, protocols and measurements to facilitate progress towards shared goals.

This is where international standards come into play.

Changing trends in trade

Globalization of trade has slowed down over the past decade, partly due to restrictive trade policies. Instead, intra-regional trade is on the rise , with many regional trade agreements (RTAs) brokered between emerging economies with growing middle classes. The Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, is a signatory to 18 such agreements for goods and services.

In addition to changes to who we trade, there have been changes to what we trade. Services are already traded more than goods and this trend is expected to continue in the coming decades, especially with the rise of digital services such as financial management and streaming entertainment, which are contributing to massive increases in cross-border data flows.

Meanwhile, growing attention to social and environmental responsibility is influencing traditional business habits. Companies looking to do their part in the climate effort are looking for ways to shorten their supply chains, such as leveraging technologies such as 3D printing, which enables manufacturing close to the end user.

The sharing economy is expected to see annual growth of more than 25% in Europe.

Technology enabled business models

Technology has always shaped commerce: from the telegraph to the blockchain. The continued growth of e-commerce is enabling more sellers, including small and medium-sized businesses, to connect directly with buyers anywhere in the world while minimizing the role of traditional third parties.

Some of the greatest opportunities and challenges come with the arrival of the sharing economy.
Also known as the gig economy or peer-to-peer economy, it is a system in which individuals share goods and services with one another directly, usually via the Internet .

As an economic model, it has the potential to make more efficient use of resources as it bypasses traditional steps in the supply chain. There are already thousands of digital platforms, such as Uber and Airbnb, dedicated to the sharing economy, and more are emerging every year.

As one of the fastest growing and most disruptive economic sectors today, the sharing economy is expected to see over 25% annual growth in Europe over the next few years. This growth, driven by trends such as consumer demand for more sustainable consumption and interest in community building, will transform the traditional consumer journey in ways that have yet to be fully understood.

However, raising new concerns about issues such as liability and working conditions , it is an industry ripe for regulation and standardisation.

New standards for new models

These changes will present new challenges for standard setting bodies. For example, increasing regional trade as global trade slows could lead to fragmented markets with conflicting standards across regions.

Meanwhile, the continued explosion of digital services may require new standards to address very 21st century commodities , such as consumer data and digital currencies.

ISO is monitoring these trends and now hosts a committee dedicated to the sharing economy.
Standards will play an important role in ensuring that this new business model delivers on its promise of being more sustainable while also preventing the exploitation of workers. As the way we operate is transformed by digital technology and other trends, it's important that standard-setting bodies engage with businesses, policymakers and consumers to help lay the foundations for the future of commerce. (Source: Masaaki Mochimaru , https://www.iso.org/ )